What brings this to mind is Windows 8, which I'm using to type this while eval'ing the RTM product. I'm not disclosing any NDA stuff here, it's pretty much the same product you downloaded earlier as the "Consumer Preview" with a few pieces of missing functionality filled in (and undoubtedly many bugs fixed). Windows 8 is Microsoft's attempt to re-invent the user interface, but fails primarily because of two reasons: A lack of courage, and a lack of that chief designer.
The lack of courage part is where Microsoft flinched at the notion of completely re-inventing the desktop. As a result, they have the "classic" desktop available by hitting a button on the "Modern" desktop. The end result is a bizarre mishmash of two different desktop environments in one, twice the amount of stuff to learn if you're a user because the "Classic" desktop environment doesn't *exactly* work the same as the well-known Windows 7 desktop environment, while the "Modern" desktop... well, it's entirely different, period. Twice the amount for end users to learn is user environment fail, period.
The lack of that chief designer, however, shows even more in the design of the "Modern" desktop. A good design is clean, looks simple (even if it isn't), everything's laid out in an obvious manner, there's a limited number of things for end users to learn in order to be productive, and, for lack of a better word, it is tasteful. It doesn't look like a mishmash of unrelated ideas from multiple independent teams all smashed together into one product.
That, however, doesn't describe the "Modern" desktop at all. One of the things I noted about Gnome 3 was that you had to basically know one gesture -- how to move your mouse pointer to the top left of the screen (or touch the top left of the screen on a touchscreen) -- to make it useful to you. Everything else is pretty obvious touch an icon or touch and drag an icon (or the click-on and click-on-and-drag with a mouse) or scroll up and down using the mouse wheel or two fingers. With the "Modern" desktop, every single corner of the screen does something -- and does something *different* (with the exception of the right-hand corners, which does something the *same*). Furthermore, moving to a corner, waiting for the hover timeout, then moving your mouse up and down does something even *different*. And right-clicking does something even *more* different. The confusing number of things you can do, indeed, need to know how to do to make the environment useful, are well past the three things you need to know how to do to use Gnome 3.
In essence, it's as if a bunch of geeks got together and decided to take every idea from every touchscreen environment ever created anywhere, and put them all into the same user interface. It's as if every geek critic of Gnome 3's tasteful design got together and designed their perfect touchscreen environment with every feature they could think of. It's as if Larry Wall designed the thing. Folks, Perl is many things, but clean and easy to use are not among those things -- it's an ugly, nasty, piece of work that will spit you in the eye if you look at it wrong just like the camel on the cover of the definitive book on the language. Like said camel it also happens to be very useful (thus why I wrote the virtualization management infrastructure for our virtualized product line in Perl, because it was the most reasonable way to parse the output of all the low-level virtualization-related utilities that the various virtualization systems use for their low-level management), but nobody has ever suggested that end users be given Perl as their user interface to their computers.
So the question is, will Windows 8 succeed? Well, define "success". The majority of personal computers in the world next year will ship with Windows 8 pre-installed. And because everything in post-Gates Microsoft is an API and Microsoft is quite open with their API's (Apple, not Microsoft, is the "Do Evil" company in the post-Gates era), sooner or later someone is going to come up with a means to tame this mess. But I have to say that Windows 8 is, in the end, a disappointment to me. Microsoft had an opportunity to re-define how personal computers worked, and they have all the pieces needed in Windows 8 to do so. They just needed a tasteful Chief Designer with the power to impose order and taste upon this mess -- and, alas, it appears they have no Jon Ives or Sergei Korolev to do so.